Daily economic digest from Forex.ee – Analytics & Forecasts – 16 November 2017

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee – Analytics & Forecasts – 16 November 2017

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events

Thursday, November 16th


The EUR/USD pair remains within its narrow
trading range of 1.1780-1.1800, as investors are expecting crucial inflation data
from the Eurozone. Seems that the pair is consolidating positions after minor
retreat from its monthly highs, marked yesterday in the vicinity of 1.1860,
amid renewed risk appetite and expectations of fresh developments regarding the
US tax reform. Today, the tax reform plan will be submitted for a vote in the
House of Representatives. Leaders of the Republican Party have already expressed
their support for the tax bill, which makes possible the implementation of
much-awaited tax reforms by the end of this year. Besides the EU numbers and the
tax vote, today we have a package of reports from the US economy, featuring Philly
Fed manufacturing index and slew of secondary releases, which will help the pair
to from its trajectory during the NA session.


The AUD/USD pair remains highly offered so
far this week, additionally weighed today by weak Australian job figures. Earlier
today, the Aussie failed to extend its correction from its 4-month lows in the
pair with its US counterpart, backed by risk-on sentiments on the FX area, and
came under renewed selling pressure after Australia published disappointing employment
change numbers. Adding to this, today the pair is also suffering from positive moods
of the greenback, which are boosted by speculations regarding upcoming US tax
reform developments. Today the US economic calendar won’t bring a lot of relevant
releases, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend, while investors’
interest in higher-yielding assets may appear supportive to AUD.


The GBP/USD pair failed to retake its key
resistance level of 1.32, and retreated back to the area of 1.3150 amid better sentiments
surrounding the US dollar on Thursday. Increased demand for the US dollar
remains key determinant across the market in the second half of this week, as markets
expect that the US tax bill will pass the vote in the House of Representatives
and much-awaited reforms will be implemented by the end of this year. On the
other side, latest comments from one of the EU negotiators Guy Verhofstadt, who
expects that Brexit talks wouldn’t fail, keep investors confident that both
sides will reach a compromise in the negotiations, which in turn appears positive
factor for GBP. Looking ahead, now all eyes remain glued to crucial data
releases from the UK economy, while upcoming Philly Fed manufacturing index and
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech will keep investors busy during the NA session.


The NZD/USD pair remains one of the weakest
assets across the market of this Thursday, having retreated to the area of its multi-week
lows, marked earlier this week in the region of 0.6850. The Kiwi prolongs its
bearish march for the sixth session in a row, as divergence between monetary
policies of the Fed and RBNZ remains key navigator for NZD/USD. Expectations of
December Fed rate hike, coupled with uncertainty on the political field of the
NZ and downbeat NZ fundamentals, are exerting negative pressure on the pair
lately. Moreover, increased demand for the US dollar on the back of hopes that
the US tax reform plan will pass the vote in the House of Representatives later
today also adds some pressure on the pair today. On the data front, today we
have only Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will help the pair to determine
its further trajectory, so NZD/USD will continue to keep following broad market
trend during this trading session.


The main events of the day:

Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +2)

CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)

Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 16.00 (GMT +2)


Support and resistance levels for
the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S.
1.1735 R. 1.1887

USDJPY                 S. 111.92 R. 113.96

GBPUSD               S.
1.3086 R. 1.3256

USDCHF               S.
0.9816 R. 0.9946

AUDUSD              S.
0.7539 R. 0.7657

NZDUSD               S.
0.6828 R. 0.6942

USDCAD               S.
1.2679 R. 1.2831


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