by Bill McBride on 11/30/2017 04:18:00 PM
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 1.01% in October, from 1.01% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.21% in October 2016.
These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (4% of portfolio), 2.82% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (7% of portfolio), 5.91% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2017 (89% of portfolio), only 0.33% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through poor performing loans from the bubble years.
In the short term – over the next couple of months – the delinquency rate will probably increase slightly due to the hurricanes. After the hurricane bump, maybe the rate will decline another 0.3 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom, but this is pretty close to normal.
Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.