by Bill McBride on 12/26/2017 09:14:00 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October (“October” is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in October, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, up from 5.7% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.4% year-over-year gain, up from 6.2% the previous month.
Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In October, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 10.2% increase, and San Diego with an 8.1% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2017 versus the year ending September 2017
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index, 10-City and 20-City Composites all posted a monthover-month gain of 0.2% in October. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index, 10-City and 20-City Composites all recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in October. Eleven of 20 cities reported increases in October before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“Home prices continue their climb supported by low inventories and increasing sales,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Nationally, home prices are up 6.2% in the 12 months to October, three times the rate of inflation. Sales of existing homes dropped 6.1% from March through September; they have since rebounded 8.4% in November. Inventories measured by months-supply of homes for sale dropped from the tight level of 4.2 months last summer to only 3.4 months in November.
“Underlying the rising prices for both new and existing homes are low interest rates, low unemployment and continuing economic growth. Some of these favorable factors may shift in 2018. The Fed is widely expected to raise the Fed funds rate three more times to reach 2% by the end of the New Year. Since home prices are rising faster than wages, salaries, and inflation, some areas could see potential home buyers compelled to look at renting. Data published by the Urban Institute suggests that in some West coast cities with rapidly rising home prices, renting is more attractive than buying.”
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 4.4% from the peak, and up 0.7% in October (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 1.7% from the peak, and up 0.7% (SA) in October.
The National index is 5.7% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.7% (SA) in October. The National index is up 43.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
The Composite 10 SA is up 6.0% compared to October 2016. The Composite 20 SA is up 6.4% year-over-year.
The National index SA is up 6.2% year-over-year.
Note: According to the data, prices increased in all 20 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
I’ll have more later.