FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link


by Bill McBride on 6/13/2018 02:15:00 PM

Statement here.

Powell press conference video here.

On the projections, the changes were minor.   The projections for GDP in 2018 are near the top of the March range, and the bottom of the range was revised up slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in
Real GDP1
2018 2019 2020
Jun 2018 2.7 to 3.0 2.2 to 2.6 1.8 to 2.0
Mar 2018 2.6 to 3.0 2.2 to 2.6 1.8 to 2.1
Dec 2017 2.2 to 2.6 1.9 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.0


1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.8% in May. So the unemployment rate projection for 2018 was revised down slightly.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment
Rate2
2018 2019 2020
Jun 2018 3.6 to 3.7 3.4 to 3.5 3.4 to 3.7
Mar 2018 3.6 to 3.8 3.4 to 3.7 3.5 to 3.8
Dec 2017 3.7 to 4.0 3.6 to 4.0 3.6 to 4.2


2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of April, PCE inflation was up 2.0% from April 2017.  PCE inflation projections were revised up for 2018.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE
Inflation1
2018 2019 2020
Jun 2018 2.0 to 2.1 2.0 to 2.2 2.1 to 2.2
Mar 2018 1.8 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.2 2.1 to 2.2
Dec 2017 1.7 to 1.9 2.0 2.0 to 2.1



PCE core inflation was up 1.8% in April year-over-year. Core PCE inflation was revised up slightly for 2018.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core
Inflation1
2018 2019 2020
Jun 2018 1.9 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.2 2.1 to 2.2
Mar 2018 1.8 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.2 2.1 to 2.2
Dec 2017 1.7 to 1.9 2.0 2.0 to 2.1



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